Air Force Institute of Technology

Multivariate Indicators of Terrorism Vulnerability in Africa Air Force Institute of Technology

Terrorism in Africa has increased more than six-fold since 1997, with an increase in lethality as well. The U. S. government has spent billions of dollars to counter this increase in terrorism; however, terrorism in Africa has increased seemingly unabated. Furthermore, these methods used to counter-terrorism have been reactionary as opposed to preventative. To address the terrorism threat to a country, we must first understand which characteristics make a country vulnerable to such a threat. A confirmatory analysis bridges the inter-discipline gap between quantitative and qualitative fields through as assessment of observational findings about the causes of terrorism. An exploratory analysis evaluates additional variables to find indicators with predictive ability. Lastly, a classification analysis further analyzes these indicator relationships in order identify break points where vulnerabilities are most detected. Ultimately, these indicators should aid in providing key strategic options to reduce the terror threat and vulnerabilities across Africa.